Global Cigarette Market Expected to Shrink by One-Third by 2027 Due to New Tobacco Products

According to an October 6 report by Euromonitor, experts at market research firm Euromonitor International said the global cigarette market is expected to shrink by one-third by 2027 as health regulations intensify their crackdown on smoking while reduced-risk products see significant growth.

Shane MacGuill, Global Lead for Nicotine and Cannabis at Euromonitor International, said 2022 was a tale of two very different tobacco markets: Asia-Pacific and Latin America grew, while the global cigarette market as a whole remained stagnant. Sales in mature markets fell sharply, with Western Europe posting its biggest cigarette market decline in a decade at -4.4%, while North America recorded a historic -8.5% drop in volume.

MacGuill said, “This means that in mature tobacco markets, the post-pandemic contraction is accelerating. According to our latest research, excluding China, the global cigarette market will lose one-third of its volume over the 20-year period from 2008 to 2027.”

In addition to regulations, one of the key factors behind falling cigarette sales is the continued rise of reduced-risk products (RRPs), including e-cigarettes, heated tobacco, and nicotine pouches.

Heated tobacco reached a market value of US$32 billion in 2022, making it the largest reduced-risk product category, nearly double the US$19 billion market value of e-cigarettes. Heated tobacco maintained double-digit growth last year, driven largely by expansion in Western Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, beyond its traditional strongholds in Asia-Pacific and Eastern Europe.

Disposable e-cigarettes saw the fastest growth last year, with value rising 91%, and surging by nearly 1,000% in Western Europe, their main market. Consumers were attracted by their affordable prices, convenience, wide range of flavors, and portability.