Eight Industries in China That Will Be Disruptively Transformed

On September 10, China Premier Li Keqiang said at the World Economic Forum held in Tianjin that China will increase scientific and technological innovation efforts and improve industrial technology, quality and brand levels.

These remarks show that the China government will continue to attach importance to technological innovation. Now, China's R & D spending has reached about 42% of that of the United States. Our research on corporate innovation in China shows that at least eight types of innovation have emerged. So far, China's success has been based more on non-technological innovation.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe that some emerging technologies and trends will change consumer behavior and force companies to either adapt or die. Analysts compare these innovations to a ground-shaking change that could lead to the decline of Polaroid imaging cameras and the rise of Wal-Mart.

Eight industries that Goldman Sachs analysts call creative destruction, which means that these companies are large enough and disruptive to recreate the industry and attract more and more investors.

e-cigarettes

E-cigarettes are becoming more and more popular, and more and more merchants are joining in. The types and styles of e-cigarette products are even more vivid. Among thousands of products, products such as mechanical e-cigarettes stand out and are becoming more and more popular among consumers. People like it. The popularity and popularity of such products can be seen from the various mechanical e-cigarettes appearing on the market.

Importing e-cigarettes into Taobao shows that there are 9 brands, totaling 63,700 pieces of treasure. A certain brand of e-cigarettes that claims to be the number one seller of smoking equipment on the entire network sells for 168 yuan, with monthly sales reaching 15,000 sets and monthly sales of 2.52 million yuan. According to incomplete statistics, the total sales of e-cigarettes in Tmall stores in 2013 were nearly 60 million yuan.

Goldman Sachs claims that e-cigarettes are 99% less harmful than tobacco cigarettes, but provide a similar experience and are cheaper.

Goldman Sachs analyst Judy Hong said that we estimate that sales of e-cigarettes will reach US$10 billion in recent years, accounting for more than 10% of the entire cigarette industry. In 2020, the total profit of e-cigarettes will account for the entire cigarette industry. 15% of the industry.

Relevant surveys show that 20% of the 6000 smokers have successfully quit smoking with the help of e-cigarettes.

cancer immunotherapy

According to the World Health Organization, 8.2 million people worldwide die of cancer every year.

Incidence rates are rising in developing countries, partly due to high smoking rates, which account for one-fifth of global cancer deaths. Other lifestyle factors that accompany the disease, such as unhealthy diet and lack of exercise, have also spread beyond Western countries, such as industrializing countries such as China and India.

The WHO says these threats could increase the number of cancers globally by 57% over the next 20 years. This will place a heavy burden on the medical systems of both developed and developing economies.

Doctors have been experimenting with so-called cancer immunotherapies since the 1850s. Because German doctors have found that if a tumor becomes infected and stimulates a patient's immune response, it sometimes becomes smaller. Now, some 160 years later, the idea of inspiring the body's natural barriers to fight cancer has finally ushered in its glory moment.

Pharmaceutical companies led by Merck and Bristol-Myers Squibb have developed a series of treatments aimed at removing the barriers that cancer cells use to evade the immune system.

Cancer immunotherapy has achieved a breakthrough among pharmaceutical companies. Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict it will make $10 billion to $150 in revenue from melanoma, lung cancer and kidney cancer, and this is just the beginning. New drugs basically retrain the immune system to kill cancer cells, while traditional chemotherapy kills cancer cells and also destroys other cells. Analysts expect the new drug to be used in comprehensive therapies.

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LED lamps

According to statistics from industry organizations on the number of global LED street lights installed in 2014, the current number of street lights installed in the world is about 200 million, of which about 65 million are installed in Europe, accounting for more than 30%, and about 44 million are in the United States, accounting for more than 20%, there are about 4 million in Japan, and about 33 million in China, accounting for more than 16% in the world.

In recent years, the penetration rate (installed number) of LED street lights in China has been continuously increasing, exceeding 7% in 2011 and reaching 11% in 2012. In 2013, the penetration rate of LED street lights was about 19%, and the market size was about 14 billion yuan. According to preliminary estimates, by 2015, the size of China's LED street light market will be approximately 23 billion yuan; by then, the overall market penetration rate of China's LED road lighting products will exceed 45%, giving a huge market space.

Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee is optimistic about the development prospects of LED lights. LEDs have undergone several transformations so far, starting with mobile phones in the 2000s, expanding to televisions, and are now developing into the common lighting field. Li said that this is an era of diversity that can allow those economical and energy-saving products to show their talents.

reinsurance industry

The scale of China's reinsurance market is growing rapidly. The sub-premium income of professional reinsurance entities has increased from 19.5 billion yuan in 2003 to 97.6 billion yuan in 2013, with an average annual growth rate of 17%.

However, there are few entities in the reinsurance market in China. There is only one China Re Group and its subsidiaries in a Chinese-funded legal entity. Reinsurance supply mainly relies on foreign insurance companies.

According to one source, in 2013, two-thirds of the total premiums of Amlin, a global professional insurance and reinsurance company, in China, came from reinsurance business. As of September 17 this year, its reinsurance premiums in China were almost three times the amount of last year's policy.

Analysts say an innovation in the capital markets is putting the reinsurance industry into crisis. The crisis comes from pensions and other traditional investors who are starting to put money into the property catastrophe reinsurance industry. And at the beginning of this innovation, Goldman Sachs predicted that the trend would only increase. Disaster bonds are the largest component of alternative capital and will continue to grow in areas such as industry loss guarantees.

Natural gas engine technology

Cummins is the world's first engine company to develop natural gas technology. In the 1960s, the research and development of natural gas engines began. In the 1980s, Cummins 'first automotive natural gas engine achieved great success once it was launched. Currently, Cummins has 6 R & D centers around the world working together to participate in the development of natural gas engines.

In the U.S. market, natural gas engines are widely used. In the bus market, the market share of natural gas engines is 15%. In the clean truck market such as sanitation trucks, the market share of natural gas engines reaches 50%. In the heavy truck market such as long-distance freight, the market share of natural gas engines reaches 1% to 2%. It is understood that Cummins natural gas engines account for 90% of the US natural gas engine market.

Natural gas vehicles have also been used relatively early in the China market, and have gradually developed from CNG vehicles to LNG vehicles. In the United States, CNG is mainly used for commercial vehicles, mainly in short-haul areas. According to Cummins forecast, as more and more large companies use natural gas engines, the LNG market will be more promising.

Given the development of natural gas in the transportation industry, Goldman Sachs views Cummins as the most attractive company because its spark-ignition engine technology is so advanced that it is the lowest cost engine in the truck transportation industry. Goldman Sachs has joint ventures with Cummins and Weichai Power, but its main source of profit, Cummins Westport, will expire in 2021, and Cummins will maintain long-term economic development. At the same time, Goldman Sachs also saw the problem, Westport lacked distribution scale.

Internet software

The rapid development of the Internet has made traditional industries face more intense market competition and technological innovation challenges. Taking Internet finance as an example, according to the latest "Statistical Report on Internet Development in China", in just one year since the launch of Internet financial products, the number of users reached 63.83 million, and the utilization rate reached 10.1%.# p#pagination title #e#

Ali's Yu 'ebao has turned an unknown fund into a market star with just a touch of hand. All stocks that are related to Internet finance have become hot targets in the capital market.

The maturity of mobile Internet, cloud computing, and big data has also brought new challenges to the business model of the traditional management software industry. Trends such as personalization, fragmentation, and mobility of user needs are increasingly incompatible with product concepts such as process and standardization of traditional management software. However, management software vendors always perceive changes in technology trends before users do. The problems faced by traditional enterprises also provide opportunities for management software manufacturers to transform and upgrade.

The software network industry can almost disrupt traditional network users. Analysts at Goldman Sachs said that although many technologies are concentrated in cloud computing, network equipment has not moved closer to it, and these devices are still stuck in the old model of a decade ago, manually configured around inherited hardware and software boxes and cannot be formed. scale. rdquo;

3D printing

According to a survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers International (PWC) in the UK, more than two-thirds of manufacturing companies have adopted 3D printing technology to some extent.

In actual manufacturing applications, some companies use 3D printing technology when traditional manufacturing (subtractive manufacturing) cannot be completed; some companies use 3D printing technology to make finished products. Companies use 3D printing technology in different ways: some at the beginning of the product; some at the time of the product's manufacture. According to PWC, prototype manufacturing is the reason behind the adoption of 3D printing technology, and 3D printing technology will still be widely used in prototype manufacturing in the future.

According to PWC survey, the emerging 3D printer market will be redefined by low cost and high quality.

In the past year, a new category of 3D printers has emerged with higher quality and decreasing costs. The emergence of these 3D printers has benefited from manufacturers, research institutions or individuals who are committed to researching 3D printers with low-cost, high-tech technologies. For example, 3D printers launched by FSL3D and Formlabs have higher printing resolutions, higher printing accuracy, and use stereolithography technology, but the price is controlled at several thousand dollars.

3D printing has the potential to reduce costs for complex designs, components and products. It also makes customization easier than traditional manufacturing and forming methods. A 3D printer is more useful than a casting or mold because it doesn't just focus on a single aspect of the design, but can print multiple versions of the design, thereby reducing upfront costs.

big data

The European Commission issued a communiqué on the 13th saying that it will establish a cooperative relationship with the Big Data Value Association and invest 2.5 billion euros to promote the development of the data industry.

This public-private partnership will be officially launched on January 1, 2015, and a number of projects will be launched starting in 2016. Between 2016 and 2020, the European Commission will use the Horizon 2020 scientific research program to invest more than € 500 million in this collaboration, and private industry partners will invest more than € 2 billion.

The European Commission pointed out in the communiqué that this partnership will help promote the generation of some disruptive big data concepts in industries such as energy, manufacturing and health care, such as providing personalized medical and predictive analysis services, and enhance the European region's strength in the field of big data and lay the foundation for the future development of a data-driven economy.

Big data from social media, web logs and elsewhere is booming in the data space, and traditional databases have shown many limitations.

Goldman Sachs believes that Teradata is the company most adapted to the big data trend and is in a favorable position to take advantage of this trend. Informatica launched the Big Data Center, with Facebook and OpenTable both users. In response, Goldman Sachs rated it as a neutral stock.