Why Has Vaping Failed to Replace Tobacco?

Why hasn't vaping replaced tobacco? Cigarettes have always been a paradox: nicotine is addictive, yet not banned by law; cigarette packs bear warnings like “Smoking is harmful to health” and images of diseased organs, yet tobacco sales have never declined; tobacco advertisements are banned on television, yet brands like Huazi, Liqun, Huanghelou, and Furongwang are increasingly prominent, with high-end and luxury cigarettes emerging continuously. There is nothing tobacco companies cannot achieve, only what smokers cannot imagine. Today, the dangers of smoking have reached a collective consensus, and smoking bans are becoming increasingly strict. For example, in Beijing, a prime area, smoking is prohibited wherever there is a roof; most restaurants do not allow smoking; and smoking scenes cannot appear in films, especially scenes of Zhang Yuqi smoking with red wine, which must be absolutely banned, as beautiful shots can lead to imitation by teenagers.
 
Perhaps it is because the tax revenue from tobacco companies is beyond imagination. The length of all the Huazi sold each year can rival the total mileage of China's high-speed rail. More critically, tobacco is not like drugs; its harm to humanity is not explosive but accumulative. Smoking one cigarette only reduces life expectancy by five minutes. In such a complex context, the management's approach to controlling smoking can only rely on the self-discipline of smokers.

To be fair, 99% of smokers are a mob. Most people look for substitutes to quit smoking, such as betel nut, rock candy, etc., resulting in the outcome that they do not quit smoking and instead develop a habit for betel nut, while rock candy creates a batch of greasy middle-aged individuals. Moreover, e-cigarettes were once highly anticipated, not only having the potential to devour traditional tobacco profits but also possibly helping people quit smoking. Unfortunately, a promising emerging industry has once again been choked by money, quality, and human nature.

The Battle of Thousands of Cigarettes: Why Did E-Cigarettes Grow Wildly?

Chinese entrepreneurs often have a mania for squeezing out of the bottle. When they encounter a good project, capital immediately floods in, running first and then seeking direction. It’s no wonder that there are so many cases in China where speed beats models. From the early group buying, known as the battle of thousands of groups, to shared bicycles, with colorful bikes in every hue, these industries have experienced early wild growth, and only a few giants remain after the waves wash away the sand. The same cycle has come to e-cigarette companies, which also experienced wild growth, arrogantly wanting to bite off a piece of the “profit giant”. The awkward thing is that with over 1,800 e-cigarette companies, not a single one may survive, and smokers still love tobacco.

Overseas models are often imitated by domestic entrepreneurs, who firmly believe that all foreign models are wrong, but some are useful, and e-cigarettes originated overseas. In fact, the penetration rate of e-cigarettes in the United States has reached 31%, and traditional tobacco company Marlboro has invested in an emerging e-cigarette company to expand its scale and achieve quick profits, with an average year-end bonus of $135,000. Compared to the U.S., China has a larger tobacco market, and with the rising call for smoking control, e-cigarettes logically have a significant market, including optimistic assessments of the number of smokers and repurchase frequency. Based on this, capital quickly flooded into the market, including major consortiums like Sequoia Capital.

Additionally, China produces 80% of the world's e-cigarettes, with a very mature industrial chain. After obtaining capital, entrepreneurs can easily get “ready-made goods”. Some OEMs can even provide “turnkey solutions”, meaning that establishing an e-cigarette brand is very easy. At its peak, it only took 5 million to get started.

Around 2019, the takeaway group buying had already shown an oligopoly trend, and shared bicycles were becoming graveyards, while the smartphone industry was lackluster, leaving Chinese capital with nowhere to go. Therefore, it was not surprising that e-cigarettes emerged as a windfall in a short time.

Gasping for Breath: Why Haven't E-Cigarettes Become Popular?

To be fair, China is a relatively good entrepreneurial environment for the e-cigarette industry, and they have indeed experienced an exciting growth period. According to incomplete statistics, at the peak, there were 1,800 e-cigarette brands, but unfortunately, these brands collapsed one after another within just six months. As mentioned earlier, the e-cigarette industry may not even retain one or two giants, and the overall feeling is that this industry is gasping for breath.

Wild growth is characterized by rapid development, but it is merely a false fire. Not only does the operating condition appear chaotic, but even the product quality standards are unclear, making regulation very easy to lose control.

As mentioned earlier, creating an e-cigarette brand only requires 5 million, which is astonishingly low. Generally speaking, good brands represent good quality, such as Zhonghua, Furongwang, and Marlboro, which have been refined through long-term operation, representing high quality and high-end. However, emerging e-cigarette brands, on one hand, have not undergone strict reviews, and on the other hand, relevant departments do not allow e-cigarettes to advertise in mainstream media. Although they are also called brands, they cannot be compared to the brands of tobacco giants. Under such cheap brands, e-cigarette operators naturally do not prioritize quality. In fact, the reason e-cigarettes were highly anticipated is that they carry the banner of “health”. Compared to the ashes produced by tobacco, e-cigarettes feel relatively “clean”, and secondhand smoke is not as annoying. However, due to the uneven quality, some e-liquids can produce new harmful chemicals, which can be more harmful than tobacco. Additionally, entrepreneurs, with a “quick money” mentality, resort to unscrupulous marketing, and exquisite packaging attracts a large number of teenagers and women to join the ranks of smokers. This situation directly loses their advantages, and rapid closures are also understandable.

Why hasn't vaping replaced tobacco? Whether e-cigarettes or traditional cigarette companies, I believe they should close down as soon as possible. Although there may be some losses in terms of national tax revenue, it is of great significance for overall health. Moreover, humans do not need cigarettes in their lives. Smokers can recall that the first cigarette they smoked was certainly painful and dry, and they had to endure pressure to learn. While smoking seems to relieve stress, it is actually just an illusion. Instead of enjoying the swirling smoke of smokers, we should enjoy being a “non-smoker”.