Comparing E-Cigarette Users and Cigarette Smokers

The previous article described the user demand for cigarettes and how various business models effectively meet the needs of cigarette users. In this article, we will analyze the user trajectory of e-cigarettes.

1. Who can better meet user needs?

Cigarettes have two major demands:

(Recommended reading -> Target users of e-cigarettes, cigarette user trajectory)

- Initial social demand: curiosity, conformity, identity expression.

- Long-term craving relief demand: the ability to smoke anytime, anywhere.

Comparison: The advantages and disadvantages of e-cigarettes in meeting cigarette demands

A. E-cigarettes make users more curious (they come with differentiation, making it easier to attract traffic)

E-cigarettes have a higher aesthetic appeal than cigarettes, produce more vapor, and offer diverse flavors, making their "new" aspect easily attractive to users.

B. The psychological pressure to conform to e-cigarettes still exists, but the barrier to trying is much higher (conversion barrier is high). Unlike cigarettes, which can be smoked anytime, e-cigarettes have a higher psychological barrier (hygiene issues) and a consumption barrier (price issues) for those around them to try.

C. Identity expression (different scenarios and applicable demographics)

The identity expressed by e-cigarettes is different from that expressed by "3-digit" Chinese cigarettes. E-cigarettes represent youth, fashion, technology, uniqueness, health, and self. Cigarettes represent maturity, status, socializing, and togetherness. A separate article will describe the psychological personas of users, and the conclusion is that they indeed express two different identities.

D. Craving relief (e-cigarettes cannot be obtained anytime, but if they can be obtained, they can still relieve cravings) - both nicotine and nicotine salts can satisfy cravings.

- From the current scientific understanding, e-cigarettes are healthier than cigarettes, with zero tar.

- The biggest drawback of e-cigarettes in craving relief comes from convenience. Early large devices required users to refill them, making them inconvenient to carry. IQOS requires carrying both the device and the tobacco sticks. Pod-based devices also need to be carried around. ----> Many cigarette users have developed the habit of carrying cigarettes and lighters, and even if they forget, they can easily buy a pack on the street. E-cigarettes cannot be easily purchased on the street like that.

- Therefore, e-cigarette users are also likely to resort to cigarettes to relieve cravings when they do not have their devices.
In summary:

E-cigarettes represent a new trend, easily accepted by young people, but difficult for the older generation.

E-cigarettes cannot be distributed easily, making social demands hard to meet, and the barriers to trying are higher.

E-cigarettes can achieve similar effects in relieving cravings as cigarettes. However, since most users do not yet have the habit of carrying e-cigarette devices long-term, the more easily accessible cigarettes are likely to return to users' lips.

2. Behavioral trajectories of representative users

The number of smokers is too large to summarize all; let’s discuss a few typical cases:

User A (minor, new smoker)

- There are people around using both cigarettes and e-cigarettes.

- The e-cigarette users seem particularly cool, and they want to get one but can't afford it at the moment.

- Finally, they secretly bought one.

- They became addicted and started a long-term repurchase cycle.

User B (20 years old, new smoker)

- Entering the workforce, social relationships change, and they come into contact with smoking.

- They discover that they can choose to smoke e-cigarettes, which aligns well with their identity as young professionals - they become long-term mixed users of e-cigarettes and cigarettes.

User C (30 years old, 3-10 years smoker)

- Feeling like they are entering middle age, they start to value their health more - they try e-cigarettes but find it hard to change their cigarette habits. Products are easily "thrown away".

- They smoke e-cigarettes for the first 5 days, then start mixing in cigarettes on the 6th day, and by the 30th day, they can't find their e-cigarette device anymore.

- After a while, when e-cigarettes become trendy again, they might buy one to try.

User D (50 years old, 20 years smoker)

- They think it’s nice! This thing costs about 2000 yuan, right?

- The taste is too bad, so they give up.

In summary: When consumers' social relationships change, it presents an opportunity for e-cigarettes (and also for cigarettes). It depends on how manufacturers seize this opportunity.

3. In an ideal scenario, how can e-cigarettes surpass cigarettes?

In an ideal scenario:

E-cigarettes' portability and retail availability should match that of lighters.

They should be easy to carry.

Even if forgotten, they should be readily available for purchase on the street.

Their price should be comparable to "a lighter and a pack of cigarettes".
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E-cigarettes should be shareable with others.

The social aspect should return.

E-cigarettes should have differentiated pricing and branding.

There should be e-cigarettes corresponding to high-end brands, as well as limited edition e-cigarettes. First-time smokers who encounter e-cigarettes may not like traditional cigarettes. The ideal scenario is backed by countless opportunities.

#5 It is inevitable that changes will occur, but only some rules will change; opportunities will still exist.

4. Reality

In reality, e-cigarettes currently do not possess the capability to fully compete with the cigarette market in terms of products. Moreover, the market and product environments are quite fragile.

When consumer goods are sold, attracting attention and achieving volume is easy, but cultivating habits is difficult. Sustained growth is challenging.

If sustained growth is achieved, it will face regulation.

In the midst of fierce competition, issues related to food safety and electronic product safety will inevitably arise. Current brands may not withstand the pressure.

If companies, like Juul, focus on minors, it may be a path forward - engaging in a 10-year war with cigarette manufacturers while publicly claiming not to sell to minors and helping people quit smoking.