Latest Research Report: Decline in UK Smoking Rates Has Stalled Since the COVID-19 Pandemic

According to a new study by researchers at University College London (UCL), the long-running decline in smoking rates in England has stalled since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The study was funded by Cancer Research UK and published in the journal BMC Medicine.

From June 2017 to February 2020, smoking prevalence fell by 5.2% per year. From April 2020 to August 2022, during the pandemic, the rate of decline slowed to 0.3%. This stalling trend was even more pronounced among more socially advantaged groups.

“Over the past 20 years, smoking rates among adults in England have been steadily declining,” said lead researcher Sarah Jackson of the UCL Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care in a statement. “Our data show that this decline has stalled, possibly because the increase in quitting has been offset by more people starting smoking or relapsing at a later stage.

“These findings make bold policy action even more urgent. The government was already off track in meeting its goal of making England smoke-free by 2030. This study suggests we are even further off course than we thought.”

Researchers estimate that 16.2% of people in England were smokers in June 2017, compared with 15% in August 2022.

Using data from the Smoking Toolkit Study, researchers aimed to understand whether the pandemic led to lasting changes in smoking patterns. They found that compared with the pre-pandemic period, quit attempts increased by 40% during the pandemic and quitting success rose by 120%, but this was offset by an increase in the number of people starting smoking during the same period.

At the start of the pandemic, smoking prevalence rose among people aged 18 to 24, while it declined among those aged 45 to 65. Both age groups experienced immediate changes, after which the pre-pandemic downward trend stopped and smoking rates remained stable.

Researchers wrote: “To achieve the 2030 smoke-free target, action is needed to reignite progress in reducing smoking among more socially advantaged groups and to find ways to accelerate the decline in smoking rates among less advantaged groups.”

“The government’s proposal to ban the sale of tobacco products to anyone born after 2008 could bring us closer to the 2030 smoke-free goal,” said Professor Jamie Brown, senior author from the UCL Institute of Epidemiology & Health Care. “Other bold proposals, such as increasing investment in mass media campaigns and distributing one million e-cigarettes to smokers, could also have a major impact.”

“These findings show that we cannot afford to be complacent about tobacco,” said Ian Walker, executive director of policy at Cancer Research UK. “Starting smoking can be easy, but quitting is notoriously difficult.

“World-leading measures such as raising the age of tobacco sales, along with critically important funding to support stop-smoking services, are vital to helping us achieve the UK’s smoke-free goal. We call on MPs from all parties to support the age-of-sale legislation in the free vote.”