Global cigarette market expected to shrink by one-third by 2027

According to a report by Euromonitor on October 6, experts at market research firm Euromonitor International said the global cigarette market is expected to shrink by one-third by 2027, as stricter health regulations continue to curb smoking while reduced-risk products see strong growth.

Shane MacGuill, Euromonitor International’s global lead for nicotine and cannabis, said 2022 reflected two very different tobacco markets: markets in Asia-Pacific and Latin America grew, while the global cigarette market as a whole remained stagnant. Sales volumes in mature markets fell sharply, with Western Europe recording its biggest cigarette market decline in a decade at -4.4%, while North America saw a record -8.5% drop in cigarette sales volume.

MacGuill said, “This means that in mature tobacco markets, the post-pandemic contraction trend is accelerating. According to our latest research, excluding China, the global cigarette market will cut one-third of its sales volume over the 20-year period from 2008 to 2027.”

In addition to regulation, one of the key factors behind falling cigarette sales is the continued emergence of reduced-risk products (RRPs), including vaping devices, heated tobacco, and nicotine pouches.

Heated tobacco reached a market value of $32 billion in 2022, making it the largest reduced-risk category, nearly double the $19 billion market value of vaping devices. Heated tobacco maintained double-digit growth last year, driven in particular by expansion in Western Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, moving beyond its traditional strongholds in Asia-Pacific and Eastern Europe.

Disposable vaping devices posted the fastest growth last year, with value rising 91%, and in their key market of Western Europe, growth surged by nearly 1000%. Consumers were attracted by their affordable prices, convenience, wide variety of flavors, and portability.