Criminologist warns higher tobacco taxes and vaping restrictions will further expand the black marke

Today, on April 22, news from foreign media reports that as calls to ban disposable nicotine e-cigarettes in Australia grow louder, a criminologist warns that the drawbacks outweigh the benefits.

When the federal government chooses to raise tobacco taxes to curb smoking, Dr. James Martin, a senior lecturer in criminology at Deakin University, predicts this will trigger a massive black market.

In 2013, tobacco taxes increased by 12.5% and continue to rise every year. 

"The rationale behind this is that there is ample evidence from around the world showing that raising tobacco prices is a truly effective way to help people quit smoking," Dr. Martin said. "It is very effective in this regard. But we are starting to encounter problems with this policy."

Dr. Martin stated that while the black market for tobacco thrives, the increase in tobacco taxes accelerates the popularity of e-cigarettes in Australia.

Black market suppliers can sell tobacco for about half the price of regulated market prices and have begun to incorporate nicotine e-cigarettes into their products.

Dr. Martin said this is a result of supply and demand.

He said: If you are a smoker who has been priced out of legal cigarettes, you still want to consume that nicotine. You can steal cigarettes, buy them on the black market, or purchase e-cigarettes on the black market.

He noted that people will seek alternatives, which is a pattern we see in illegal markets around the world.

"Simply restricting supply, whether through taxation or outright prohibition, does not necessarily mean it will reduce usage," Dr. Martin said.

Dr. Nick Coatsworth, health reform ambassador for the Australian Patients Association and former Deputy Chief Medical Officer of Australia, stated that the issue of e-cigarettes in Australia is not straightforward.

"If there is a black market for e-cigarette products, then we actually have no control over the actual contents of the e-cigarettes themselves," he said.

"We know that many of them are manufactured overseas under poorly regulated conditions, including in China. So paradoxically, if you ban them outright... you have no way to regulate the products, and we know that kids will still have access to these things."

However, Dr. Coatsworth stated that he still supports the idea of a complete ban, especially in the short term, while studying the medium and long-term impacts of e-cigarettes.

"If usage does not decline due to the ban and public health messaging, then we will likely need to reassess our position," he said. Dr. Coatsworth noted that one of the main reasons for his stance is to prevent young people from developing nicotine addiction.

"I think the main issue we need to consider is that e-cigarettes are a double-edged sword," he said.

"For adults addicted to nicotine and smoking, they can be a useful tool as a transition to quitting smoking, there is no doubt about that. But at the same time, this has become a real problem for young people in Australia, and I think that is why we are now taking a stricter regulatory stance. While it may be the case that e-cigarettes are preferable to cigarettes, the fact is that the only thing that is safe to inhale into the lungs is clean air."

Dr. Martin pointed to policies in the UK and New Zealand, where people can legally purchase nicotine e-cigarettes without a doctor's prescription. "The key is to try to give smokers a choice between a carrot and a stick."

Dr. Martin said: Therefore, on one hand, you make tobacco more expensive, and on the other hand, you provide people with a... harmful but less harmful e-cigarette alternative.

"In Australia, we have not done this yet. You can only legally obtain nicotine with a doctor's prescription, and very few people do so."

He said that nine out of ten people use e-cigarettes illegally, and they often contain very high concentrations of nicotine.