A Few Thoughts on the Future of the Vaping Industry

Market Chaos

The small e-cigarette era in the vaping industry surged in 2018, with many prominent figures entering the market, basking in the spotlight of capital markets. Due to low technical costs and broad market prospects, without unified standards and national regulatory standards, anyone could find a processing factory to produce, leading to a superficial industry with rampant chaos. According to incomplete statistics, over 700 small e-cigarette brands emerged between 2018 and 2019, creating a situation where everyone wanted to enter the market to make a quick profit.

National Policy

The "Announcement No. 1 of 2019 by the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration and the State Administration for Market Regulation on Further Protecting Minors from E-Cigarette Harm" poured cold water on the booming e-cigarette market, causing all e-cigarette brands to lose their online sales channels and struggle to survive. Many are facing bankruptcy, and the sudden downturn in the market has been difficult for many entrepreneurs and investors to accept.

The rapid development of the e-cigarette industry, which is positioned as a substitute for cigarettes, also carries certain risks and addictive properties.

Many believe that the e-cigarette industry has touched the interests of national tobacco tax revenue. I completely disagree with this view; those who hold such thoughts are narrow-minded and lack a broader perspective. When issues reach the national level, the government cannot only consider money. Moreover, tobacco tax revenue is substantial, but if smoking is completely banned or everyone switches to e-cigarettes, people will have other leisure habits to replace or pay taxes on e-cigarettes, so the overall tax revenue for the country may not change significantly.

The reason the government has implemented policies to restrict e-cigarettes is not to completely deny them, but because the market is too hot and needs to cool down. E-cigarettes are undoubtedly harmful products to the human body. With so many internet giants joining in and so much capital being poured into advertising, it raises questions about whether this is human madness or a frenzy for money.

Many manufacturers label e-cigarettes as smoking cessation products to obscure the fact that they are harmful to health, diverting attention from the essence of e-cigarette products and promoting them widely, hoping everyone will start vaping.

I am also an e-cigarette user and a loyal fan. After switching to e-cigarettes, I no longer smoke traditional cigarettes and feel much better than when I smoked. I firmly believe that the harm of e-cigarettes is less than that of traditional cigarettes, but this is not an excuse to promote e-cigarettes excessively. After all, there are always more non-smokers than smokers in the world. Additionally, it misleads those who want to quit smoking, suggesting that they can continue to vape instead of quitting.

In my view, e-cigarette products are primarily harmful to the human body, which is the foremost consideration. For those who do not want to quit smoking, e-cigarettes can be a beneficial alternative to traditional cigarettes. However, whether this is beneficial in the long term remains uncertain. Many may find it difficult to quit smoking in the future because they believe e-cigarettes are less harmful.

Ongoing Health Concerns About E-Cigarettes

1. E-cigarettes can cause severe lung damage, but I believe it is not as severe as traditional cigarettes.
2. Switching to e-cigarettes can improve vascular health, which is definitely true for those who quit traditional cigarettes for e-cigarettes.
3. The harm of e-cigarettes is far less than that of traditional cigarettes; this is my personal opinion and is for reference only.
4. It is not nicotine that is carcinogenic, but cigarette smoke; this is a medical issue and I won’t comment further.
5. E-cigarettes can assist in quitting smoking and are effective for smokers; I personally agree with this.
6. E-cigarettes do not have a secondhand smoke issue; I still agree with this because my family hardly smells anything when I vape.
7. Will the smoking rate among teenagers rise due to e-cigarettes? I believe it will, as the promotion claims e-cigarettes are healthy, which will mislead teenagers.
8. Improving e-cigarette regulations is very important; I believe this is necessary.

E-cigarettes are a double-edged sword; they may be good for some people but certainly harmful to others (for example, those who do not smoke but start vaping due to the emergence of e-cigarettes, which is an unavoidable phenomenon). Therefore, for a long time to come, the various controversies surrounding e-cigarettes are unlikely to subside and will continue for a long time. Whether they can be resolved, I do not know.

Market Outlook Analysis

As for the market outlook, any intelligent person knows that there are over 1.3 billion smokers globally, with over 300 million in China. The tobacco tax in China accounts for 3% of total tax revenue, which can fund the military's expenses for a year. One can imagine how vast this market is.

I believe that for e-cigarettes to develop, they must grow quietly; this is better for the industry and for the many smokers who find it hard to quit. Gradual development may affect the speed of industry growth and the profitability of companies, but the market is so vast, and the potential demand has not changed. If one pursues quick profits blindly, leading to serious social issues, I believe the government will not allow it, and the entire industry may be completely wiped out by national power.