New FDA Rules May Create a Vaping Black Market

On August 15, the UK Centre for Substance Use Research (CSUR) released a new study revealing that the recently implemented vaping regulations pose significant health risks. This includes the likelihood that current e-cigarette users will continue to use vaping products through various means of circumventing the regulations, or that if they cannot legally purchase e-cigarette products, they will increase their consumption of traditional tobacco.

The FDA regulations strictly control the production and sale of e-cigarettes, which may result in the vast majority of e-cigarettes currently sold in the U.S. becoming unavailable legally.

In this study, 9,040 U.S. native e-cigarette users (8,451 of whom were former smokers, 282 are current smokers, and 307 have never smoked) were asked what they would do if the e-cigarette products they currently use disappeared from the market due to FDA regulations.

Among the respondents, about 75% indicated that they would stockpile their favorite e-cigarettes before the regulations took effect; nearly 70% said they would purchase e-cigarettes and e-liquids from unauthorized suppliers (i.e., the "black market"); 66% stated they would import e-cigarette products from overseas; and 65% said they would manufacture and mix e-liquids at home. In stark contrast to these high percentages, less than 20% of e-cigarette users indicated that they would switch to FDA-approved e-cigarette products if their current favorites were no longer available.

Worryingly, 15% of former smokers indicated that they would likely revert to tobacco products if their current e-cigarette products were no longer available. Additionally, 33% of current smokers stated they might smoke more, while 10% of current non-smokers who vape indicated they might start smoking if they could not purchase their preferred e-cigarette products.

Dr. Christopher Russell from the Centre for Substance Use Research led this study. He commented, "This study highlights a significant gap between the intentions expressed by the FDA and the potential impacts of the regulations as perceived by e-cigarette users. While the regulators' intentions are good, if a significant number of e-cigarette users turn to the black market for products after these regulations are implemented, the positive impacts of the regulations will be undermined, causing harm to these users. It is crucial for the FDA and policymakers to recognize these potential harms."

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there are currently an estimated 8.34 million e-cigarette users in the U.S. The CSUR survey included 12 questions assessing participants' demographics, actions they plan to take after the FDA regulations take effect, and the potential impacts of the regulations on stakeholders. Most respondents (91.6%) were current e-cigarette users and former smokers, 3.1% were current e-cigarette users and smokers (dual users), and 3.3% were current e-cigarette users and never smokers. The remaining 2% of respondents identified as "other" or did not answer the question. The survey's respondents represented all 50 states and four-sixths of the regions.

Other important findings:

• 72% of respondents indicated they would purchase large quantities before the rules take effect, raising serious concerns about product degradation and consumer safety.
• 69% of respondents stated they would purchase products from local unauthorized vendors on the black market.
• 65% of respondents indicated they would make their own e-liquids at home.
• 66% of respondents said they would buy devices, products, and e-liquids from vendors online that are not subject to domestic regulations, tax policies, and electronic product standards.
• Only 6% of current e-cigarette users who described themselves as former smokers (having not smoked a single cigarette in the past 30 days) indicated they planned to stop using e-cigarettes after the new regulations take effect, with even fewer (1%) planning to stop before the regulations take effect.
• No signs indicate that respondents plan to switch to other nicotine products after the new regulations take effect; 3% said they would start using snuff or smokeless tobacco, and 12% indicated they would start using one or more nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products, such as patches, gum, or lozenges.
• 15% of former smokers said they would likely revert to tobacco once they could no longer legally purchase their current e-cigarette products.
• 69% of respondents were former smokers, 57% were dual users, and 64% of current e-cigarette users who had never smoked indicated they would continue using e-cigarettes by purchasing products and supplies on the unregulated black market.