New FDA Rules Could Create a Vaping Black Market

On August 15, the UK Centre for Substance Use Research (CSUR) released a new study, finding that the recently implemented e-cigarette regulations pose very adverse health implications. This includes the likelihood that current e-cigarette users will continue to use e-cigarette products in ways that circumvent regulations, or if they cannot legally purchase e-cigarette products, they will increase their consumption of traditional tobacco.

The FDA regulations strictly control the production and sale of e-cigarettes, which may result in the vast majority of e-cigarettes currently sold in the United States becoming unavailable legally.

In this study, 9,040 American e-cigarette users (8,451 of whom were former smokers, 282 are current smokers, and 307 have never smoked) were asked what they would do if their current e-cigarette products disappeared from the market due to FDA regulations.

Among the respondents, about 75% indicated that they would stockpile their favorite e-cigarettes before the regulations took effect; nearly 70% said they would purchase e-cigarettes and e-liquids from unauthorized suppliers (i.e., the "black market"); 66% said they would import e-cigarette products from overseas; and 65% said they would manufacture and mix e-liquids at home. In stark contrast to these high percentages, less than 20% of e-cigarette users indicated that they would switch to FDA-approved e-cigarette products if their current favorites were no longer available.

Worryingly, 15% of former smokers indicated that they would likely revert to tobacco products if their current e-cigarette products were no longer available. Additionally, 33% of current smokers indicated that they might smoke more, while 10% of current e-cigarette users who have never smoked indicated that they might start smoking if they could not purchase their favorite e-cigarette products.

Dr. Christopher Russell, who led the study at the Centre for Substance Use Research, commented, "This study shows a significant gap between the FDA's expressed intentions and the potential impacts of the regulations as perceived by e-cigarette users. The regulators' intentions are good; however, if a significant number of e-cigarette users turn to the black market for products after these regulations are implemented, the positive impacts of the regulations will be undermined and will harm these users. It is crucial for the FDA and policymakers to recognize these potential harms."

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), there are currently an estimated 8.34 million e-cigarette users in the United States. The CSUR survey included 12 questions assessing participants' demographics, actions they plan to take after the FDA regulations take effect, and the potential impacts of the regulations on stakeholders. Among the respondents, the majority (91.6%) were current e-cigarette users and former smokers, 3.1% were current e-cigarette users and smokers (dual users), and 3.3% were current e-cigarette users and never smokers. The remaining 2% of respondents identified as "other" or did not answer the question. The survey's respondents represented all 50 states and six out of four regions.

Other important findings:

• 72% of respondents indicated they would stockpile before the rules take effect, raising serious concerns about product degradation and consumer safety.
• 69% of respondents indicated they would purchase products from local unauthorized vendors on the black market.
• 65% of respondents indicated they would make e-liquids at home.
• 66% of respondents indicated they would purchase devices, products, and e-liquids from vendors not regulated by domestic laws, tax policies, and electronic product standards.
• Only 6% of current e-cigarette users who described themselves as former smokers (having not smoked a single cigarette in the past 30 days) indicated they plan to stop using e-cigarettes after the new regulations take effect, and even fewer (1%) indicated they plan to stop using e-cigarettes before the regulations take effect.
• There is no indication that respondents plan to switch to other nicotine products after the new regulations take effect; 3% indicated they would start using snuff or smokeless tobacco, and 12% indicated they would start using one or more nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products, such as patches, gum, or lozenges.
• 15% of former smokers indicated they would likely revert to tobacco once they can no longer legally purchase their current e-cigarette products.
• 69% of respondents were former smokers, 57% were dual users, and 64% of current e-cigarette users who had never smoked indicated they would continue using e-cigarettes by purchasing products and supplies on the unregulated black market.