Similarities and Differences Between E-Cigarette Users and Cigarette Smokers

The previous article described the user needs of cigarette smokers and how various business models effectively meet those needs. In this article, we will analyze the user trajectory of e-cigarettes.

1. Who can better meet user needs?

The two main needs of cigarette smokers:

(Recommended reading -> Target users of e-cigarettes, cigarette user trajectory)

- Initial social need: curiosity, conformity, identity expression.

- Long-term addiction relief need: a smoke anytime, anywhere.

Comparison: The pros and cons of e-cigarettes in meeting cigarette needs

A. E-cigarettes spark more curiosity (inherent differentiation, easier to attract traffic)

E-cigarettes have a higher aesthetic appeal than cigarettes, produce more vapor, and offer diverse flavors, making their "new" aspect easier to attract users' attention.

B. The psychology of conformity still exists with e-cigarettes, but the threshold for trying is much higher (conversion threshold is high). Unlike cigarettes, which can be smoked anytime, e-cigarettes have a higher psychological barrier (hygiene issues) and consumption barrier (price issues) for those around them to try.

C. Identity expression (different scenarios and applicable demographics)

The identity expressed by e-cigarettes is different from that expressed by "3-character" Chinese cigarettes. E-cigarettes represent youth, fashion, technology, uniqueness, health, and SELF. Cigarettes represent maturity, status, socializing, and TOGETHER. A separate article will describe the psychological personas of users, concluding that they indeed express two different identities.

D. Addiction relief (e-cigarettes cannot be obtained anytime, anywhere, but if available, they can still relieve cravings) - both nicotine and nicotine salts can satisfy cravings.

- According to current scientific understanding, e-cigarettes are healthier than cigarettes, with zero tar.

- The biggest drawback of e-cigarettes in terms of addiction relief comes from convenience. Early large devices required self-refilling and were inconvenient to carry. IQOS requires carrying both the device and the tobacco sticks. Pod-based devices also need to be carried around. ----> Many cigarette users have developed the habit of carrying cigarettes and lighters, and even if they forget, they can easily buy a pack on the street. E-cigarettes cannot be casually purchased on the street like that.

- Therefore, e-cigarette users can easily resort to cigarettes to relieve cravings when they don't have their devices.
In summary:

E-cigarettes represent a new trend, easily accepted by young people, but difficult for the older generation.

E-cigarettes cannot be distributed, making social needs hard to meet, and the threshold for trying is higher.

E-cigarettes can achieve similar effects in relieving cravings as cigarettes. However, since most users do not yet have the habit of carrying e-cigarette devices long-term, the more accessible cigarettes are likely to return to users' lips.

2. Behavioral trajectories of representative users

The number of smokers is too large to summarize all, so let's discuss a few typical cases:

User A (minor, new smoker)

- There are people around using cigarettes and e-cigarettes.

- The e-cigarette companions seem really cool, and I want to get one too, but I can't afford it right now.

- Finally, I secretly bought one.

- Got addicted, leading to long-term repeat purchases.

User B (20 years old, new smoker)

- Entering the workforce, social relationships change, and I come into contact with smoking.

- I find I can choose to smoke e-cigarettes, which aligns well with the identity of young professionals - long-term mixed consumption of e-cigarettes and cigarettes.
User C (30 years old, 3-10 years of smoking) - Feels like entering middle age, starts to value health - tries e-cigarettes, but the habit of smoking cigarettes is hard to change. Products are easily "monthly disposable".

- Smoked e-cigarettes for the first 5 days, started mixing in cigarettes on the 6th day, and by the 30th day, couldn't find the e-cigarette device anymore.

- After a while, when the trend comes back, I might buy another one to try.

User D (50 years old, 20 years of smoking)

- Feels good! This thing costs about 2000 yuan, right?

- The taste is terrible, I don't want it anymore.

Summary: When consumers' social relationships change, it presents an opportunity for e-cigarettes (and also for cigarettes). It depends on how manufacturers seize this opportunity.

3. In an ideal scenario, how can e-cigarettes surpass cigarettes?

In an ideal scenario:

E-cigarettes' portability and availability at retail points should match that of lighters.

Easy to carry

Even if forgotten, can be bought immediately on the street.

The price should be similar to "a lighter plus a pack of cigarettes".
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E-cigarettes can be shared with others.

Social attributes return.

E-cigarettes should have price and brand differentiation.

There should be e-cigarettes corresponding to the identity of major brands, as well as limited edition e-cigarettes. First-time smokers who encounter e-cigarettes may not like cigarettes at all. The country does not impose restrictions on this ideal scenario, which is backed by countless opportunities.

#5 It is inevitable that changes will occur, but only some rules will change; opportunities still exist.

4. Reality

In reality, e-cigarettes currently do not possess the capability to fully compete with the cigarette market. The market environment and product environment are very fragile.

When consumer goods are sold, attracting attention and scaling up is easy, but cultivating habits is difficult. Sustained growth is challenging.

If sustained growth is achieved, it will face regulation.

In the midst of fierce competition, food safety/electronic product safety incidents are bound to occur. Current brands may not withstand the pressure.

If it really follows the path of Juul, tightly targeting minors, it could be a way forward - engaging in a 10-year war with cigarette manufacturers while publicly claiming not to sell to minors and helping people quit smoking.